Eric Siegel Knihy

Tato sofistikovaná kniha je přístupná i čtenářům-„neanalytikům“ a ukazuje, jak lze pomocí počítačů predikovat chování jednotlivců, jako jsou zákazníci, pacienti či voliči. Firmy modelují, kdo pravděpodobně klikne na reklamu, provede nákup nebo podvádí, což je klíčové v oblastech jako marketing, finance, zdravotní péče a boj s kriminalitou. Autor představuje fascinující aplikace a případové studie predikcí a výzev pro jejich zlepšení. Dozvíte se, jak banka Chase předpověděla hypoteční riziko před krizí, jak lze určit, kdo zanechá studia nebo se rozvede, a proč hladoví soudci vynášejí méně příznivé verdikty. Také se dozvíte, jak prodejní řetězec Target rozpozná těhotenství zákaznic a jak IBM Watson porazil vítěze televizní soutěže pomocí predikcí. Kniha je vhodným protějškem k myšlenkám N. N. Taleba, který tvrdí, že predikce jsou často odsouzeny k neúspěchu. Autor ukazuje, že většina lidského jednání je pravidelná a předvídatelná. Dále je kniha považována za manuál pro život ve 21. století, kde jsou predikce z velkých dat klíčové ve vědě, byznysu, financích a politice. Byla bestsellerem na Amazonu v několika kategoriích.

"Predictive analytics unleashes the power of data. With this technology, computers literally learn from data how to predict future behaviors of individuals. In this updated and revised edition of Predictive Analytics, former Columbia University professor and Predictive Analytics World founder Eric Siegel reveals the power and perils of prediction. New material includes: - The Real Reason the NSA Wants Your Data: Automatic Suspect Discovery. A special sidebar in Chapter 2, "With Power Comes Responsibility," presumes--with much evidence--that the National Security Agency considers PA a strategic priority. Can the organization use PA without endangering civil liberties? - Dozens of new examples from Facebook, Hopper, Shell, Uber, UPS, the U.S. government, and more. The Central Tables' compendium of mini-case studies has grown to 182 entries, including breaking examples. - A much needed warning regarding bad science. Chapter 3, "The Data Effect," includes an in-depth section about an all-too-common pitfall, and how we avoid it, i.e., how to successfully tap data's potential without being fooled by random noise, ensuring sound discoveries are made. - Even more extensive Notes, updated and expanded to 70+ pages, now moved to an online PDF. Now located at www.predictivenotes.com, the Notes include citations and comments that cover the above new content, as well as new citations for many other topics"--

In this rich, entertaining primer, former Columbia University professor and Predictive Analytics World founder Eric Siegel reveals the power and perils of prediction: What type of mortgage risk Chase Bank predicted before the recession. Predicting which people will drop out of school, cancel a subscription, or get divorced before they are even aware of it themselves. Why early retirement decreases life expectancy and vegetarians miss fewer flights. Five reasons why organizations predict death, including one health insurance company. A truly omnipresent science, predictive analytics affects everyone, every day. Although largely unseen, it drives millions of decisions, determining whom to call, mail, investigate, incarcerate, set up on a date, or medicate. Predictive analytics transcends human perception. This book's final chapter answers the riddle: What often happens to you that cannot be witnessed, and that you can't even be sure has happened afterward -- but that can be predicted in advance? Whether you are a consumer of it -- or consumed by it -- get a handle on the power of Predictive Analytics. This book is easily understood by all readers. Rather than a "how to" for hands-on techies, the book entices lay-readers and experts alike by covering new case studies and the latest state-of-the-art techniques.