Narrative Economics

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Economists have traditionally relied on financial aggregates like price-earnings ratios and asset prices for forecasts, often with limited success. Robert Shiller enhances this approach by incorporating insights from mass psychology, leading to the development of behavioral economics. He explores how psychological factors shape economic events and narratives, explaining the emergence and viral spread of popular economic stories and their impact on economic developments. In the preface, Shiller introduces narrative economics, referencing the Great Depression and World War II, and illustrates a contemporary example with the viral rise of Bitcoin. He discusses how narrative economics intersects with other disciplines and draws parallels to epidemiology in understanding how ideas spread. Shiller also examines recurring economic narratives, such as the gold standard, real estate booms, and stock market fluctuations. He concludes with a vision for future research in narrative economics, emphasizing the importance of understanding these narratives in shaping economic realities.