Dan Gardner Knihy

Schopnost předpovídat budoucnost by byla pro každého z nás cenná, ať už při investicích, uvádění nových produktů na trh nebo plánování osobních aktivit. Avšak lidé obvykle nejsou dobří prognostici. Profesor Tetlock ve své studii z roku 2005 ukázal, že i odborné předpovědi jsou často jen o něco lepší než náhoda. Někteří lidé však mají výjimečnou schopnost předpovídat budoucnost, a Tetlock se poslední dekádu snažil zjistit, proč tomu tak je a zda se to dá naučit. Tetlock a novinář Dan Gardner přinášejí mistrovské dílo o předpovídání, které vychází z dlouholetého výzkumu a velké prognostické soutěže, kterou podpořila americká vláda. Projekt Dobrý úsudek zapojil desítky tisíc obyčejných lidí, kteří měli za úkol předpovídat světové události. Někteří z nich byli překvapivě úspěšní a překonali nejen ostatní účastníky, ale i akademické experty a analytiky zpravodajských služeb. Autoři ukazují, co se můžeme naučit od těchto „superpředpovídačů“ a přinášejí příběhy úspěšných i neúspěšných předpovědí. Dobrého předpovídání lze dosáhnout sběrem informací z různých zdrojů, pravděpodobnostním uvažováním, týmovou prací a ochotou připustit chybu. Kniha představuje efektivní a vědecky podloženou metodu, jak zlepšit schopnosti předvídat budoucí události v byznysu, politice i každodenním životě.

Everyone would benefit from better foresight, whether in finance, policy-making, or daily planning. However, people often struggle with accurate predictions. A landmark study by Wharton professor Philip Tetlock revealed that even experts' forecasts are only marginally better than chance. Yet, some experts possess genuine foresight, prompting Tetlock to explore the reasons behind this talent and whether it can be taught. In collaboration with Dan Gardner, Tetlock presents a comprehensive examination of prediction, drawing on extensive research and a large-scale forecasting tournament called the Good Judgment Project. This initiative involved thousands of ordinary individuals, including a filmmaker and a retired pipe installer, who successfully forecasted global events, outperforming benchmarks and even intelligence analysts with classified information. These exceptional forecasters, termed 'superforecasters,' demonstrate that effective prediction doesn't rely on advanced technology but on gathering diverse evidence, thinking probabilistically, collaborating, tracking performance, and embracing errors. Through compelling stories of both successful and failed forecasts, along with insights from prominent decision-makers, the authors reveal practical strategies for enhancing our predictive abilities across various domains, making this work a valuable resource for anyone seeking to improve their foresight.

The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods.

Tetlock's latest project - an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions - has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight.

Every day we hear about terrorism, war and apocalypse. But the real risk of these events happening to us is about as likely as winning the lottery. Dan Gardner explains our risk perception through our brain's two simultaneous responses to risk - the ancient 'fight or flight' instinct and the rational, considered response.

In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future - everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict the future confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example- packed, sometimes darkly funny book, Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely they are to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.