Peter Turchin Knihy

Elita, kontraelita a cesta k rozpadu politiky Předpovědi brzkého kolapsu neodmyslitelně patří k životu každé civilizace, možnost pracovat s velkými daty dodala těmto předpovědím vědečtější základ. Peter Turchin se s pomocí ohromného souboru dat o prosperitě a zániku společností v časovém rozpětí 10 000 let („od Horního Egypta po Dolní Manhattan“) pokouší objevit statistické vzorce, které ukazují, kde mají lidské civilizace v éře měst a států zabudovány mechanismy vlastní destrukce. Dva z nich jsou klíčové a komplementárně se doplňují. Pokud se totiž k rostoucí nerovnosti bohatství přidá i nadprodukce potenciálních elit, celospolečenské snahy stát se bohatou elitou jsou stále zběsilejší. Frustrovaní aspiranti na elitu poté využívají lidovou nelibost k tomu, aby se obrátili proti zavedenému řádu. Autor současně stále doufá, že komplexní matematika může budoucí nestabilitu společností nejen odhalit, ale také jí zabránit.

This book is recognized for its originality and timely relevance, offering a richly detailed exploration of its subject matter. It is thoughtfully constructed, making it an important contribution to contemporary discussions. The insights provided are both profound and well-articulated, appealing to readers interested in a deep understanding of the topic at hand.

Utilizing insights from evolutionary biology, Peter Turchin presents a groundbreaking theory that reinterprets the trajectory of world history. He explores the interplay between social structures and historical events, suggesting that societal dynamics play a crucial role in the rise and fall of civilizations. Through this lens, Turchin examines the cyclical nature of conflict and peace, providing a fresh perspective on historical patterns and their implications for the future.

Statement of the problem -- Geopolitics -- Collective solidarity -- The metaethnic frontier theory -- An empirical test of the metaethnic frontier theory -- Ethnokinetics -- The demographic-structural theory -- Secular cycles in population numbers -- Case studies -- Mathematical appendix -- Data summaries for the test of the metaethnic frontier theory

What was history's biggest empire? Or the tallest building of the ancient world? What was the average life expectancy in medieval Byzantium? The average wage in Old Kingdom Egypt? Where did scientific writing first emerge? What was the bloodiest ritual human sacrifice ever?We are used to thinking about history in terms of stories. Yet we understand our own world through data: vast arrays of statistics that reveal the workings of our societies. So, join the radical historians Peter Turchin and Dan Hoyer for a dive into the numbers that reveal the true shape of the past. Drawing on their own Seshat project, a staggeringly ambitious attempt to log each piece of demographic and econometric information that can be reliably estimated for every society that has ever existed, Figuring Out The Past does more than tell the story of the past: it shows you the large-scale patterns.

What leads to political turbulence and social breakdown? How do elites maintain their dominant position? And why do ruling classes sometimes suddenly lose their grip on power? For decades, complexity scientist Peter Turchin has been studying world history like no one else. Assembling vast databases mined from 10,000 years of human activity, and then developing new models, he has transformed the way we learn from the past. End Times is the result- a ground-breaking account of how society works. The lessons, he argues, are clear. When the balance of power between the ruling class and the majority tips too far in favour of elites, income inequality surges. The rich get richer, the poor further impoverished. As more people try to join the elite, frustration with the establishment brims over, often with disastrous consequences. Elite overproduction led to state breakdown in imperial China, in medieval France, in the American Civil War - and it is happening now. But while we are far along the path toward violent political rupture, Turchin's models also light the way to a brighter future. Drawing insight from those occasions in history where the balance was restored, End Times also points towards a different future- an escape from the patterns of the past.

What was history's biggest empire? Or the tallest building of the ancient world? What was the average life expectancy in medieval Byzantium? The average wage in Old Kingdom Egypt? Where did scientific writing first emerge? What was the bloodiest ritual human sacrifice ever?We are used to thinking about history in terms of stories. Yet we understand our own world through data: vast arrays of statistics that reveal the workings of our societies. So, join the radical historians Peter Turchin and Dan Hoyer for a dive into the numbers that reveal the true shape of the past. Drawing on their own Seshat project, a staggeringly ambitious attempt to log each piece of demographic and econometric information that can be reliably estimated for every society that has ever existed, Figuring Out The Past does more than tell the story of the past: it shows you the large-scale patterns

A three-volume essay writing course for students in American English.

A three-volume essay writing course for students in American English.

Historical analysis shows that long spells of equitable prosperity and internal peace are succeeded by protracted periods of inequity, increasing misery, and political instability.These crisis periods--"Ages of Discord"--have recurred in societies throughout history. Modern Americans may be disconcerted to learn that the US right now has much in common with the Antebellum 1850s and, more surprisingly, with ancien řgime France on the eve of the French Revolution. Can it really be true that there is nothing new about our troubled time, and that similar ages arise periodically for similar underlying reasons? Ages of Discord marshals Structural-Demographic Theory and detailed historical data to show that this is, indeed, the case. The book takes the reader on a roller-coaster ride through American history, from the Era of Good Feelings of the 1820s to our first Age of Discord, which culminated in the American Civil War, to post-WW2 prosperity and, finally, to our present, second Age of Discord