Trapped in a vicious circle

What are the links between threats to human security, such as civil war, human rights violations, and other political violence? How can these links be used to assess the risk of more violence to come? And what can be done to manage violent conflicts? ‘Trapped in a Vicious Circle’ examines these questions empirically, using global datasets. In the first part, the author looks at links between different threats. A first study finds that genocide lowers the probability that new states will become democracies. A second study establishes a strong link between government repression and the risk of future civil war. Second, three risk assessment models are presented, for civil war, government repression, and genocide. By including threats to human security in the empirical models, meaningful tools can be constructed that assess the risk of future political violence with some accuracy. The third part examines two types of conflict management. International mediation between civil war parties has an ambiguous effect on the duration of peace after the war. An analysis of peacekeeping shows that states do not shy away from sending peacekeepers into complex conflicts.