Risk-sensitive land use planning

Many megacities in the world are located in highly seismically active regions, including Metro Manila, the National Capital Region of the Philippines. This research aims to find out how land use planning can be applied as a long-term proactive ap-proach in reducing the seismic vulnerability of seismically challenged cities in the Philippines using Marikina City, Metro Manila as a case study. Marikina City is trav-ersed by the western splay of the Marikina Valley Fault System. Disaster risk is high not only because of the direct exposure of the city to a future probable large earth-quake, but also because population growth and urban development continue un-abated. This means a larger number of people and urban infrastructures are vulner-able to a seismic disaster. Earthquake hazards assessment was conducted to select a probable sce-nario earthquake. Using available geologic studies and historical earthquake records, parameters of the scenario earthquake were determined using the deterministic ap-proach. The scenario earthquake was then used to assess the physical, human, and spatial vulnerability of the city. An Excel-based program called RADIUS was used in both hazards evaluation and damage assessment. The results are effective in estab-lishing the seismic vulnerabilities of places and people across the urban space. Results of the risk analysis have implications on the existing urban form and land use pattern of the city. High-risk areas in the city are identified such as the tradi-tional commercial district, commercial corridors, and urban poor resettlement sites, among others. In view of this, the strategy of risk-sensitive land use planning is pro-posed as a unifying approach for seismically challenged towns and cities. Risk-sensitive land use planning utilizes familiar planning tools and techniques such as overlay zones and open space network development. By combining risk analysis with the standard planning process, risk-sensitive land use planning is a systematic and logical method to achieve the objective of reducing seismic vulnerability and risk while producing long-lasting urban improvements towards safer and sustainable ur-ban settlements.