Small Wars, Big Data

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A new understanding of warfare can enhance military effectiveness in contemporary conflicts. Over the past sixty years, the nature of warfare has shifted dramatically from large-scale battles between armies to confrontations with rebel insurgencies employing elusive tactics such as improvised explosives and terrorist attacks. This transformative perspective on modern conflicts reveals that warfare now centers on people rather than territory. Civilians and the information they provide can significantly influence outcomes at critical moments. Drawing on two decades of conflict examples from Latin America, the Middle East, and Central and Southeast Asia, the authors emphasize an information-centric approach to insurgencies, analyzing the dynamics among rebels, governments, and civilians. This framework allows for deeper exploration of modern conflict aspects, including the suppression of insurgent activities, the impact of mobile communication networks, and the complex relationship between aid and violence. The authors argue that while conventional military strategies may yield short-term victories, they often jeopardize long-term peace. Ultimately, they illustrate that although the stronger side can win villages, this does not necessarily equate to winning the war. The insights provided offer groundbreaking strategies for more effective engagement in small wars, ultimately benefiting local populations.