End Times

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BEST BOOKS 2023: THE GUARDIAN * THE TIMES * SUNDAY TIMES A pre-eminent digital-age seer, Peter Turchin offers a brilliant new theory on societal dynamics. He explores the roots of political turbulence and social breakdown, examining how elites maintain their dominance and why they sometimes lose power unexpectedly. With decades of research, Turchin has analyzed vast databases spanning 10,000 years of human history, transforming our understanding of the past. His groundbreaking account reveals that when the balance of power tips too far in favor of the ruling class, income inequality surges, leading to increased frustration among the majority. This frustration, when combined with elite overproduction, has historically resulted in state breakdowns, as seen in imperial China, medieval France, and the American Civil War. Turchin warns that we are currently on a similar trajectory toward violent political rupture. However, his models also illuminate pathways to a more hopeful future. By drawing insights from historical instances where balance was restored, Turchin suggests that it is possible to escape the destructive patterns of the past. His work serves as both a cautionary tale and a guide for navigating the complexities of contemporary society.