Strategic Instincts

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A common belief in political science is that cognitive biases—shared quirks of the human brain—lead to policy failures and conflicts. However, Dominic Johnson challenges this notion, arguing that these nonrational behaviors can actually yield positive outcomes in international politics. By examining historical examples, he demonstrates how cognitive biases function as "strategic instincts," providing a competitive advantage in decision-making, particularly in unpredictable situations with limited information. Drawing on evolutionary theory and behavioral science, Johnson focuses on three key biases: overconfidence, the fundamental attribution error, and in-group/out-group bias. He explores both the beneficial and harmful effects of these biases through case studies, including the American Revolution, the Munich Crisis, and the Pacific campaign in World War II. While acknowledging the potential downsides—such as when overconfidence turns into hubris or group bias leads to prejudice—he advocates for a more nuanced understanding of cognitive biases. Ultimately, Johnson posits that, in the complex realm of international relations, strategic instincts can enhance decision-making when applied in the right context, suggesting that an evolutionary perspective is essential for integrating psychological insights into international politics.