Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

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Radical uncertainty highlights the limitations of traditional probability in predicting future events, especially when historical data is inadequate. The narrative explores pivotal moments, such as President Obama's decision-making regarding Osama bin Laden and the unforeseen evolution of technology like smartphones. It critiques the reliability of financial advice that attempts to forecast long-term variables, emphasizing that many significant life events are inherently unpredictable and cannot be accurately assessed through standard statistical methods.