Puzzles of political change in the Middle East. Political liberalisation, authoritarian resilience and the question of systemic change

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This discussion paper revisits political change in the MENA region a decade after the Arab uprisings, focusing on systemic change. It explores the definitions of "democratisation" versus "authoritarian upgrading," and analyzes theories of both democratization and authoritarian resilience. The conclusion highlights Tunisia as a rare success story, while noting that current reforms may hinder peaceful systemic change and increase the likelihood of violent conflict.